LLAW’s All Things Nuclear #715, Wednesday, (08/07/2024)
LLAW’s All Things Nuclear #715, Wednesday, (08/07/2024)
“End Nuclear Insanity Before Nuclear Insanity Ends Humanity”
LLAW’s NUCLEAR ISSUES & COMMENTS, Wednesday, (08/07/2024)
Once again, from yesterday’s and many other of my blog posts over the last several months: “Deterrence”, will not save us from nuclear war; it only makes it more likely because the idea of having billions upon billions of nuclear hardware while constantly building more eventually becomes meaningless, nothing more than a waste of all those billions of dollars and other resources, until one day someone in the ‘deterrence’ trio, or perhaps more likely outsider North Korea, finally says, “Oh, to hell with it,” decides to drop out of the nuclear race, and to use what they’ve already got, and that means only one thing: The Earth we live on becomes instantly uninhabitable.
We have boxed ourselves in, and I mean all of us who have the power of nuclear weapons at our disposal. There is no way out, and continuing to build bigger, more powerful, and deployment methods (the nuclear warfare “Triads”, and Russia is threatening to add orbiter nuclear weapons in outer space as a fourth, so how could the U.S. and China be far behind?).
So, I ask you, who are these so-called “Experts” we keep talking about, and just why are they called experts? Believe me, there are no “Experts” related to the ‘All Things Nuclear” world-wide discussion, unless it is those, like me, who know enough to understand that all things nuclear will one day destroy humanity and most other life on planet Earth. Oppenheimer, Einstein, (the long gone ‘genius experts’), and many lesser known experts of the Manhattan Project warned us all, but on August 6th and 9th, 1945 (today is the proverbial “day after”), the USA murdered somewhere around a quarter-million innocent people in Hiroshima and Nagasaki Japan, ending WWII, which should have told us all we needed to know about nuclear weapons, nuclear wars, and nuclear-powered anything and everything. First, the world must disarm, and then we must go the rest of the way to rid ourselves forever of all things nuclear in order to survive . . . ~llaw
The nuclear weapons era is making a comeback, and experts say we're all not paying attention
Aug 7, 2024, 10:07 AM PDT
Nuclear weapons are poised to once again take center stage, decades after the Cold War ended.
The US, threatened by a rising China, is being advised to consider an expansion of its nuclear forces.
Leading experts told BI that few in the public are paying attention the worrying trends.
In 2022, Congress formed the Strategic Posture Commission — a bipartisan team of 12 experts hand-picked to advise the US on what to do with its nuclear weapons.
These are rare. The only other time Congress created such a group was in 2008.
But China was a new concern. Western intelligence says Beijing has since 2020 launched a sudden expansion of its nuclear stockpile, amassing launchers and warheads without explanation.
Alarm bells were ringing in Washington. The Cold War was a stand-off between two nuclear superpowers, and the US now fears China is on a highway to becoming a third.
In its October 2023 final report, the 12-person Commission painted the situation as dire.
"The new global environment is fundamentally different than anything experienced in the past, even in the darkest days of the Cold War," they said.
The commissioners recommended that the US consider its first nuclear expansion since the Cold War, including more warheads, delivery systems, defenses, and launchers.
All of this underlines a deeper anxiety among leading experts that the international arena, fixated for decades on the post-9/11 war on terror, is now tilting relentlessly back to an era of nuclear build-up and brinkmanship.
Business Insider asked 10 nuclear scholars — including four Commissioners — and US-China relations experts on how the US should act.
They agreed that if global trends do not dramatically reverse, the world is poised to live under the shadow of nuclear threat again.
Several prominent arms control scholars have criticized the Commission's report, fearing an arms race that they feel is unnecessary and will escalate the risk of annihilating humanity.
But signs are showing that the US government feels a build-up may have to be considered. In a speech on Thursday, Vipin Narang, the Defense Department's senior official overseeing nuclear policy, said that "we now find ourselves in nothing short of a new nuclear age."
It's a looming future that some experts feel is being dismissed in the US, especially among younger generations born after the Soviet Union's collapse.
"All of the trend lines are going in the wrong direction. So I think we are moving toward a much more dangerous world than it is today," said James Acton, co-director of the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
"And it's certainly possible that in the future, it could be as dangerous, if not more dangerous, than the original Cold War," he said.
The Two-Peer Problem
At the crux of the US' concerns is what American leaders call the Two-Peer Problem.
The US is worried it will need to simultaneously counter two of its equals on the nuclear playing field, when it traditionally only had the power to fight one — namely, the Soviet Union.
Beijing is reported to be rapidly increasing its stockpile to an estimated 500 warheads in 2023, up from 400 in 2022.
At that rate, China will have 1,550 warheads — putting it on par with US and Russian capabilities — by 2035.
That would be the Two-Peer Problem: A three-way tie that experts fear will shatter the past basis for nuclear negotiations.
A simple way to understand this dilemma is to look at the numbers.
The US and Russia previously agreed to limit arsenals to 1,550 deployed warheads each.
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If China were to reach parity, Washington would want an arsenal matching Moscow's and Beijing's combined, or theoretically 3,100 warheads.
Russia and China are more likely to think the appropriate equilibrium is for everyone to deploy 1,550 warheads each. However, given their close ties, the US is unlikely to accept such an agreement.
With no common number to reach, the three powers will be prone to rushing to gain the upper hand, Acton said.
"Once this arms race really kicks off, I think it's going to be very, very, very hard to stop it," he added.
The race against 2035
By its calculations, Washington now has only 11 years to find and establish a solution by 2035. That's a short window for nuclear programs, which are generally rolled out over decades, not years.
"Decisions need to be made now," wrote the Commission.
The recommendations in its report included putting multiple warheads on one intercontinental ballistic missile (known as MIRV), building more B-21 stealth bombers, and basing nuclear weapons in the Indo-Pacific region.
It also advised the US to look into more tactical nukes, which are lower-yield bombs that Russia stockpiles by the thousands. The report made no recommendations on numbers.
Rose Gottemoeller, one of the 12 Commissioners, emphasized to BI that the report only asked the US to begin planning for an expansion, not to pull the trigger on a build-up now.
"We have the opportunity between now and 2035 to try to get Russia back to the negotiating table and to get China to start talking to us about controlling nuclear weapons," said Gottemoeller, NATO's deputy secretary-general from 2016 to 2019 and the former US chief negotiator with Russia on nuclear programs.
Washington and Moscow held nuclear talks for decades during the Cold War and beyond, but China has not engaged in such discussion so far.
That's unacceptable to the US. "They're not obligated to agree to anything specific, but they are obligated to negotiate in good faith, and they have certainly not done that," said Marshall Billingslea, former US special presidential envoy for arms control and one of the 12 Commissioners.
Russia, meanwhile, spent the last two years making nuclear threats over the war in Ukraine.
To scholars supporting a US nuclear expansion, the situation has deteriorated so drastically that the time to simply hope for negotiations has passed. America must act, they told BI.
"I think when the United States is strong, our adversaries think: 'Okay, this is dangerous. We don't want to get into a conflict with the United States,'" Matt Kroenig, a professor at Georgetown University's government studies department. He was also one of the 12 Commissioners.
"When the United States is weak, that's when you see aggression and violence," he added.
The Chinese Foreign Ministry and embassy in Washington did not respond to requests for comment sent by BI.
Not all experts are convinced
Scholars who disagree said the US is looking at the Two-Peer Problem incorrectly.
Nuclear weapons are widely understood as the ultimate defense against existential threats like invasion, and these experts say the US can maintain that even if it has fewer nuclear weapons.
"We should focus on keeping our nuclear arsenal survivable, safe, secure, and reliable," said Acton of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. "We don't need to compete with them numerically. It won't enhance deterrence to do so."
Francesca Giovannini, executive director of the Project on Managing the Atom at Harvard University's Kennedy School, said that while official US-China nuclear talks are frozen, academics and non-governmental organizations are still trying to keep the dialogue flowing.
However, she told BI that the White House's past moves, such as withdrawing from the Iran nuclear deal in 2018 and the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty in 2002, have sowed doubt in Beijing that the US will keep to its arms control commitments.
"These examples come back often in dialogue," she said. "In China, arms control is increasingly seen as a mechanism devised by the United States to constrain China's rising military power."
That has made talk of arms control an increasingly dangerous line for Chinese experts to defend in the domestic debate, Giovannini added.
ABOUT THE FOLLOWING ACCESS TO “LLAW’S ALL THINGS NUCLEAR” RELATED MEDIA:
There are 7 categories, with the latest (#7) being a Friday weekly roundup of IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) global nuclear news stories. Also included is a bonus non-nuclear category for news about the Yellowstone caldera and other volcanic and caldera activity around the world that play an important role in humanity’s lives. The feature categories provide articles and information about ‘all things nuclear’ for you to pick from, usually with up to 3 links with headlines concerning the most important media stories in each category, but sometimes fewer and occasionally even none (especially so with the Yellowstone Caldera). The Categories are listed below in their usual order:
All Things Nuclear
Nuclear Power
Nuclear Power Emergencies
Nuclear War
Nuclear War Threats
Yellowstone Caldera (Note: There are 3 Yellowstone Caldera bonus stories available in this evening’s Post.)
IAEA Weekly News (Friday’s only)
Whenever there is an underlined link to a Category media news story, if you press or click on the link provided, you no longer have to cut and paste to your web browser, since this Post’s link will take you directly to the article in your browser.
A current Digest of major nuclear media headlines with automated links is listed below by nuclear Category (in the above listed order). If a Category heading does not appear in the daily news Digest, it means there was no news reported from this Category today. Generally, the three best articles in each Category from around the nuclear world(s) are Posted. Occasionally, if a Post is important enough, it may be listed in multiple Categories.
TODAY’S NUCLEAR WORLD’S NEWS, Wednesday, (08/07/2024)
All Things Nuclear
NEWS
Ask Strider: Those Ashland cats are back
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Centrus Board Adds Two Members With Key National Security, Industry, and Nuclear Expertise
PR Newswire
Cloud Computing/Internet of Things · Computer Electronics · Computer ... all in order to allow us to continue importing Russian LEU under the ...
American Cole Hocker pulls Olympic shocker in men's 1,500 - Alabama Daily News
Alabama Daily News
This was supposed to be all about a chance for the defending Olympic ... Browns Ferry Nuclear Plant turns 50 with plans to continue operations 8/6/24 ...
Nuclear Power
NEWS
Explosions Heard Just Miles Away From Russian Nuclear Power Plant - Newsweek
Newsweek
Explosions were heard in Kurchatov in Russia's Kursk region, where a nuclear power plant is located, Telegram channels reported on Tuesday, ...
Kaiga steam generator arrives on site - World Nuclear News
World Nuclear News
The first steam generator for units 5 and 6 of the Kaiga nuclear power plant in India's Karnataka State has completed its journey from L&T's ...
Top 10: Nuclear Power Leaders - Energy Digital Magazine
Energy Digital Magazine
Top 10: Nuclear Power Leaders · Jacob DeWitte, Co-Founder and CEO of Oklo · Andre Liebenberg, Executive Director and CEO of Yellow Cake · David D. Cates, ...
Nuclear Power Emergencies
NEWS
Why we need Diablo Canyon Nuclear Power Plant - Cal Coast News
Cal Coast News
This cross-agency training provides for a more integrated emergency disaster response. Both the training and equipment paid for and supplied by PG&E ...
Nuclear War
NEWS
Madness, Sanity and Nuclear War in the Middle East
Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies
Most ominously, it could mean Israel's eventually suffering an Iranian nuclear attack. Contrary to conventional wisdom, Israel's “Iran nuclear problem ...
Amid Deepening Global Mistrust, Divisions, 'We Cannot Press Our Luck Again' to Avert ...
Meetings Coverage and Press Releases - the United Nations
... Nuclear War, Secretary-General Warns on Anniversary of Atomic Bombings in Hiroshima ... Too many are blind to the fact that we were lucky to end the ...
'The threat is very real': Nuclear war a strong possibility as CBRM marks Hiroshima anniversary
SaltWire
... nuclear war. Sean Howard, campaign co-ordinator for Peace Quest Cape ... Howard said that nearly 80 years later, the threat of nuclear war is “horribly ...
Nuclear War Threats
NEWS
Into the unknown: Managing conventional and nuclear uncertainty in the Indo-Pacific
Breaking Defense
It is noteworthy that Russia's nuclear threats, while yet unfulfilled ... The age of nuclear systems being defined by Cold War thinking is ...
Aging hibakusha remind the world of nuclear horrors - EHN - Environmental Health News
Environmental Health News
As the hibakusha age, their stories are becoming increasingly urgent, especially as global nuclear threats are on the rise. ... nuclear war from ever ...
The nuclear weapons era is making a comeback, and experts say we're all not paying attention
Business Insider
Nuclear weapons are poised to once again take center stage, decades after the Cold War ended. · The US, threatened by a rising China, is being advised
Yellowstone Caldera
NEWS
Experts say Yellowstone eruption merely an indicator of regular geological activity, not 'The Big One'
Dominion Post
The Yellowstone supervolcano rests in a hotspot of molten Earth pooling into a magma chamber, the land above rising as the chamber fills and falling ...
What will happen if Yellowstone's supervolcano erupts? - MSN
MSN
' Although the Yellowstone caldera's initial blast would kill thousands in a 'super-eruption,' showering multiple US states in 'pyroclastic flows' of ...
Young Aussie reduced to tears over 'hidden' message on her receipt - MSN
MSN
' Although the Yellowstone caldera's initial blast would kill thousands in a 'super-eruption,' showering multiple US states in 'pyroclastic flows ...