LLAW’s All Things Nuclear #632, Thursday, (05/16/2024)
LLAW’s All Things Nuclear #632, Thursday, (05/16/2024)
“End Nuclear Insanity Before Nuclear Insanity Ends Humanity”
LLAW’s NUCLEAR ISSUES & COMMENTS, Thursday, (05/16/2024)
This is one of the best and easiest to understand definitions of our ridiculous reliance on something called ‘deterrence’ to permanently avoid nuclear war through the thin veil of ‘threats’ that, if acted upon, would without doubt lead to a nuclear WWIII. Given human nature we have long known that words (including written and signed legal agreements among nations) mean nothing to countries when potential war is involved. And ‘ nuclear deterrence’ means even less. Consider this description (borrowed rom the commentary below) of ‘deterrence’ between you and your neighbor: ~llaw
The problem is that threats with nuclear weapons are extreme, by their nature, promising massive and devastating harm. It is very difficult to use nuclear weapons without killing civilians and turning large areas into rubble. This triggers something in human nature. Such catastrophic threats cross a line; they create wariness, mistrust, and avoidance in the person being threatened. If your neighbour threatens to kill you and shoot your children and then burn down your house and strangle your dog, you will find it difficult to coexist with, trust, or work cooperatively with that person forever after. Extreme actions and extreme threats make normal relations problematic going forward. ~from the European Leadership Network
Commentary | 16 May 2024
The extreme nature of nuclear deterrence
Ward Wilson |Executive Director of RealistRevolt, former senior fellow at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies and BASIC
Paul Ingram |Research affiliate at the University of Cambridge Centre for the Study of Existential Risk (CSER)
NUCLEAR SECURITY NUCLEAR WEAPONS GLOBAL SECURITY
The wars in Ukraine, the Middle East, and Africa are raging in the context of rising great power competition on the one hand and, on the other, urgent issues that demand global cooperation, such as climate change and the crises in liberal democracies. Attitudes in Europe appear to have hardened significantly since the disastrous Russian invasion of Ukraine. Fearful of an aggressive Russia and believing that there is a need for a stronger European nuclear deterrent, Poland has been testing the waters to see whether it could host US nuclear weapons, and even recently, non-aligned Finland has also been considering nuclear deployments. Responding to the possibility of a new Trump Presidency and doubt over US commitments to Europe, debate has opened up in Germany over building a nuclear force of its own — a move that would irrevocably blow a hole in the global nonproliferation regime.
Looming over all is the shadow of nuclear conflict and talk of a possible Third World War. Confidence in the stability of nuclear deterrence is hitting a new low, yet states appear to be doubling down on their bets. Many states’ leadership profess a shared faith in nuclear deterrence as a contribution to stability (at least when they or their allies control it), but this is probably because they have no idea of any alternative.
There is no question that nuclear threats are so frightening that they can work in dissuading states from aggression (or joining a war). It is said that Russia has been deterred from attacking NATO members or supply lines into Ukraine, and NATO has been deterred from joining the war with boots on the ground or no-fly zones. But the risk is fearsome, and the deterrent effects can wane over time.
It is an obvious but inconvenient truth that nuclear deterrence demands the signalling and credible readiness to fight a nuclear war. The risk of nuclear war is, therefore, baked into nuclear deterrence. As a result, suggestions to reduce nuclear risk, for example, by issuing no-first-use declarations, consistently run up against objections that they’re not practical or undermine the credible threat at the heart of deterrence. Questions about whether or how often nuclear deterrence may fail catastrophically only serve to strengthen deterrence in the minds of advocates.
One additional core problem is often overlooked. Even when nuclear deterrence works, it leaves a residue of poison behind in international relationships, just as a detonated nuclear weapon leaves a trail of invisible radioactive fallout downwind.
The problem is that threats with nuclear weapons are extreme, by their nature, promising massive and devastating harm. It is very difficult to use nuclear weapons without killing civilians and turning large areas into rubble. This triggers something in human nature. Such catastrophic threats cross a line; they create wariness, mistrust, and avoidance in the person being threatened. If your neighbour threatens to kill you and shoot your children and then burn down your house and strangle your dog, you will find it difficult to coexist with, trust, or work cooperatively with that person forever after. Extreme actions and extreme threats make normal relations problematic going forward.
The consequences arising from the use of nuclear weapons are so extreme that the very threat dehumanises those on the receiving end and brutalises those making the threats. President Putin’s reminders of Russia’s nuclear capabilities in early 2022 were a shock, and appear to be the root cause of resentment many in Europe feel towards him, even in the face of his actual destruction in Ukraine. This is despite the fact that analysts find it challenging to articulate what it was about his exact words that departed from past implied nuclear threats supporting aggressive military action (such as UK Defence Secretary Geoff Hoon against non-nuclear Iraq in March 2002).
Nuclear deterrence harms cohesion within the international community. Yet the need for cooperation among the nations of the international community has never been more urgent. Rising hostility and confrontation are all but destroying the international community’s capacity to tackle the tremendous common challenges of our time: the weakening fabric of our societies and the rise of populism; responding to climate change; reversing the destruction of our planet’s ecosystems; and managing weapons of mass destruction and the terrifying destructive possibilities arising from disruptive technologies such as AI. Greater collaboration between governments across many activities is essential for our collective survival. Efforts by many states in the international community to isolate Russia have disrupted negotiations in international fora. One example was the 2022 NPT Review Conference, when there was an attempt to get a consensus agreement that all nuclear power facilities in Ukraine should be under the control of Ukrainians (a demand that Russia would clearly veto).
Although the practice of nuclear deterrence is generally thought of within nuclear-armed states as relatively benign – it carries with it often unnoticed adverse effects, diluting the soft power of those states that practice it. Ward Wilson and Paul Ingram
Although the practice of nuclear deterrence is generally thought of within nuclear-armed states as relatively benign – like an invisible shield that protects nations from harm – it carries with it often unnoticed adverse effects, diluting the soft power of those states that practice it. Nuclear-armed states threaten global security and drive arms-racing behaviour and are perenially criticised by other states at every nuclear nonproliferation conference. Evidence that the use of nuclear deterrence may be wearing thin within the majority world is the emergence of the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons — which now has more than 80 signatories and has entered into force. States parties to the Treaty are engaged in a host of serious activities aimed at re-evaluating and replacing nuclear deterrence as a defining feature of global politics. The very nature of nuclear deterrence – the credible threat to annihilate the other – exacerbates the current high levels of tension and angry antagonism between the three largest nuclear powers: Russia, the United States, and China.
When nuclear weapons first arrived on the scene, they were hailed by those responsible for US nuclear doctrine as tools that could do virtually anything, but over time, a certain amount of reality has sunk in. Some believe a “nuclear taboo” has developed, but perhaps the more plausible explanation for their non-use since 1945 is that they are simply too big and too destructive for fighting wars. Our militaries keep hold of them in the belief that within their integrated deterrence strategies (in which nuclear-armed states propose a broad toolbox of capabilities to uphold deterrence), nuclear weapons have an irreplaceable role. But in a world where there are many ways to deliver strategic deterrence across a wide range of effects, ways that are likely to be more credible than the threat of a nuclear attack, it is time to reverse the slide into a new nuclear arms race and instead let go of the dangerous and doubtful belief that nuclear weapons are essential.
Of course, if other tools for effective strategic deterrence are more effective and credible, states could adopt them unilaterally. But this transformation is more likely if they come around to recognising these realities in tandem together. The N5 (formally misnamed P5) Process meeting of nuclear weapon states has continued to meet at the working level and has been discussing nuclear postures. In August, the Chair will be taken on by the Chinese, who rejuvenated the process when they last chaired five years ago. They are set to invite their fellow Nuclear Weapon States to consider the no-first-use doctrine. Still, perhaps they could also kick off a shared process that questions their received wisdom and explores the fundamental utility of nuclear deterrence itself.
The opinions articulated above represent the views of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the position of the European Leadership Network or any of its members. The ELN’s aim is to encourage debates that will help develop Europe’s capacity to address the pressing foreign, defence, and security policy challenges of our time.
Image: Shutterstock
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There are 6 categories, including a bonus non-nuclear category for news about the Yellowstone caldera and other volcanic and caldera activity around the world that play an important role in humanity’s lives, as do ‘all things nuclear’ for you to pick from, usually with up to 3 links in each category about the most important media stories in each category, but sometimes fewer and occasionally even none (especially so with the Yellowstone Caldera). The Categories are listed below in their usual order:
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A current Digest of major nuclear media headlines with automated links is listed below by nuclear Category (in the above listed order). If a Category heading does not appear in the daily news Digest, it means there was no news reported from this Category today. Generally, the three best articles in each Category from around the nuclear world(s) are Posted. Occasionally, if a Post is important enough, it may be listed in multiple Categories.
TODAY’S NUCLEAR WORLD’S NEWS, Thursday, (05/16/2024)
All Things Nuclear
NEWS
Russian President Putin makes first trip since inauguration to critical ally China : NPR
NPR
I asked a scholar here named Zhou Bo about all this. He's a retired Chinese military officer, and he's now a senior fellow researching security at ...
Russian President Putin makes first trip since inauguration to critical ally China
Little Rock Public Radio
All Things Considered. Next Up: 6:30 PM Marketplace. 0:00. 0:00. All Things ... nuclear weapons - in other words, low-yield battlefield nukes. The use ...
Industry hopeful U.S. ban on Russian uranium imports revives Western mines
Colorado Public Radio
All Things Considered · View News Schedule. CPR Classical. Symphony #2 ... nuclear fuel production and sever a stream of money flowing from American ...
Nuclear Power
NEWS
Nuclear Power Remains the Solution to Growing Energy Needs, Says Expert
Hungary Today
Furthermore, the VVER-1200 type being built as part of the Paks II nuclear power plant project (in central Hungary) can generate electricity for up to ...
Swedish project to develop Gen IV nuclear power system
World Nuclear News
The Swedish Energy Agency has granted SEK50 million (USD4.7 million) for a project led by researchers at Chalmers University of Technology in ...
The Scandalous Science Behind Nuclear Regulation - Competitive Enterprise Institute
Competitive Enterprise Institute
Nuclear power could be a game-changer for energy affordability, grid reliability, and carbon reduction. However, it's been stifled for decades ...
Nuclear Power Emergencies
NEWS
Texas Grid Issues Alert for Potential Power Emergency - Bloomberg
Bloomberg
... Nuclear Plant This Year, BNEF SaysIndian Renewable Energy Firm Plans Maiden Dollar Bond Sale. Read More: Texas Warned of Blackout Risk as Sun Sets ...
UPDATE 1-Russian shelling cuts external power to Ukraine nuclear plant - Kyiv
Yahoo Lifestyle Canada
The Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear energy plant in southern Ukraine was operating on emergency diesel generators on Monday after Russian ...
Scottish government declares national housing emergency - BBC
BBC
... emergency this afternoon. ... emergencies. Fife Council made the same move ... UK government plans for a new nuclear power plant in Scotland and Celtic's ...
Nuclear War
NEWS
Ukraine war latest: Russia and China issue nuclear war warning - as Putin holds crucial ...
Sky News
Vladimir Putin is in China, where he is meeting with president Xi Jinping less that a week after launching a fresh incursion into the Kharkiv ...
Macron's wrong to think France's nuclear umbrella can protect Europe - Politico.eu
Politico.eu
In a key passage in his recent Sorbonne speech, French President Emmanuel Macron insisted that Russia must absolutely not win its war of aggression ...
US questions China's no-first-use nuclear call given buildup | Reuters
Reuters
Israel and Hamas at War · Japan · Middle East ... nuclear warheads and will probably have more than 1,000 by 2030. ... nuclear-armed peers." "Beijing's ...
Nuclear War Threats
NEWS
The extreme nature of nuclear deterrence | European Leadership Network
European Leadership Network
Such catastrophic threats cross a line; they create wariness, mistrust, and avoidance in the person being threatened. If your neighbour threatens to ...
Iran's April attack irrevocably shifted how its nuclear threat is viewed - The Jerusalem Post
The Jerusalem Post
Until the massive attack of around 350 aerial threats ... war with Ukraine ... nuclear threat as the most imminent since it was created three decades ago.
U.S. takes North Korea nuclear threats seriously - State Department | Reuters
Reuters
The U.S. State Department said on Monday the United States took North Korean threats to use nuclear weapons seriously and urged Pyongyang to halt ...
Yellowstone Caldera
NEWS
Top 10 Most Active Volcanoes in the US (2024 Reoort) | KnowInsiders
KnowInsiders
1. Yellowstone Caldera, Wyoming · 2. Hawaii volcanoes, HI · 4. Mount Redoubt, Alaska · 5. Mount St. Helens, Washington · 6. Mount Shasta, California · 7.