LLAW’s All Things Nuclear #572, Sunday, (03/17/2024)
“End Nuclear Insanity Before Nuclear Insanity Ends Humanity”
LLAW’s CONCERNS & COMMENTS, Sunday, (03/17/2024)
The following article is a summary of an interview of Tom Shanker’s opinion concerning the Director of National Intelligence’s Threat Assessment of nuclear war threats. My thoughts are that Putin, who is a dictator who has indiscriminate power over his country, is an old man who believes if he can’t take his power and idealism with him, no one else can either, including his own people. That means he will do what he decides to do, because as Shanker says, he doesn’t care about public opinion and unless he is assassinated or he dies suddenly, he will due whatever he has a mind to.
But, then too, regardless of what Putin may decide to do, there are “Threats” coming from every nuclear armed country on the planet, so who knows who, when, and why one of them will push the nuclear button that would most likely mark the end for us all, and all other living creatures as well . . . ~llaw
GWU's Thom Shanker: DNI's Annual Threat Assessment; Take the Russian Nuclear Threat Seriously
Posted By Tim Hains
On Date March 15, 2024
On Thursday's edition of the RealClearPolitics radio show (Monday through Friday at 6:00 p.m. EST on Sirius XM's P.O.T.U.S. Channel 124) Andrew Walworth speaks with Thom Shanker, a former New York Times Pentagon correspondent and former Moscow correspondent for the Chicago Tribune.
Shanker is currently the director of the Project for Media and National Security at George Washington University.
They discuss what the Annual Threat Assessment from the Director of National Intelligence has to say about Russia and the threat of nuclear war, China's continuing interest in Taiwan, and other threats from North Korea, Gaza, and Iran.
THOM SHANKER: Russia remains one of our most significant threats. It is a nuclear power and has been for a long time, so that has not changed. But this newly belligerent, hostile Putin is taking aim at the United States.
People always ask me if there is a new cold war with Russia. My answer is we're already at war with Russia, or at least Putin is at war with us. The Director of National Intelligence predicts that Putin will absolutely accelerate his malign attempts to influence our election this year using all sorts of cyber, AI, and all that in ways far greater and perhaps more damaging than last time around. So that is their biggest concern, and that is putting aside Putin's illegal invasion of the sovereign Ukraine.
ANDREW WALWORTH, REALCLEARPOLITICS: Putin gave an interview yesterday where he talked about nuclear weapons again. He said, "We are ready to use any weapons when talking about the existence of the Russian state, damaging our sovereignty or independence." That's being interpreted as saying he might deploy nuclear weapons in Europe. How seriously should we take that?
THOM SHANKER: Very seriously, at our risk do we not believe what Putin says out loud. In 2007, he said he might invade Georgia. That happened in 2008. He talked about Ukraine being a natural part of Russia, he invaded twice in 2014 and 2022. So when Putin talks about the possibility of tactical nuclear weapons, we better listen carefully. That said, there are strong reasons why he says that, not just for battlefield purposes. He wants to scare the American people and all of the NATO citizenry into not supporting Ukraine for fear of a nuclear weapon being dropped in Europe. We should take it seriously, nuclear weapons have always been part of Russia's warfighting plans, but there is a strategic communications aspect to this as well. Most analysts think Putin would not resort to tactical nukes in Ukraine except as an, "I'm about to lose" scenario. And right now, things on the ground are going relatively well for Russia, so why should he do that?
ANDREW WALWORTH: How much of this do you think is for domestic consumption in Russia? He's got to keep his people in line and scared, I guess.
THOM SHANKER: Yes and no, which is not a helpful answer. There is a Russian domestic part of this. He goes on television, people are watching, but Putin doesn't care about Russian public opinion. Russia has lost more men in the battle for Ukraine. It is the highest number since World War Two and Putin is still conscripting, sending men off to fight and die. So he doesn't really care about public opinion, he is going to win the election. He's very stable in power right now. So I think he tips his hat to the Russian psyche, saying, "We are strong, we have nukes." But this is not about him courting some constituency in his population that he thinks he might lose. That is not happening.
The headline here: Putin doesn't care about you. Putin to Russian people: drop dead.
...
[The DNI's] assessment of China is very sophisticated. With Putin, Putin is likely to meddle in our election because he has a favorite candidate. He says he doesn't but it is true. One of the two candidates, buy threatening NATO, by saying we shouldn't fund Ukraine, serves Russia's interests more than the other candidates.
China is interesting. They don't really have a preferred presidential candidate, because on this at least, Trump and Biden are fairly aligned in wanting to stand firm to the rise of China. To me, as the DNI's report says, China's interest in election meddling is just to mess with our heads and mess with our domestic politics, to make things even messier. To which I say, "Why bother? It's already happening, we're doing it on our own."
ANDREW WALWORTH: The DNI report did talk about China first, and I think spent more time on that than on Russia. When you look at China right now, what's your major concern and how worried are you about what they're doing in the South China Sea, when it comes to Taiwan?
THOM SHANKER: That to me is the real threat. The election meddling came first with China because they're better at it, and more sophisticated. They have more tools. And because Russia has a clear incentive whereas China is more subtle.
I am deeply worried about potential Chinese aggression against Taiwan. China has interests in a stable global economy, their growth is dependent on it and they're facing challenges at home. At the same time, China is almost neuralgic about reuniting with Taiwan and making it formally part of China. It is a real challenge for what U.S. policy is. Most of our military platforms are simply outdated. Aircraft carriers can't operate closely because of Chinese air defenses. There's a lot of exciting work being done in drone research, where we could flood the Taiwan straits with thousands of cheap drones, some with intelligent gathering abilities, some with weapons, to make China wonder. The whole point of how we deal with Chian is deterrence. We don't want to get into a shooting war with China. We want to suppress fires, not get to them. We want to have the kinds of new technologies that make China wonder, if we launched an attack on China today, might we not succeed? It's all about advanced warnings, intelligence, and cheap attritable weapons systems. Not these super expensive big top carriers which are so vulnerable.
...
What I look at is an aggressive China and Russia, that we talked about. Look at North Korea continuing with weapons development, Iran, the situation in Gaza which will upset the entire Mideast for a generation, and the Houthis threatening shipping in the Red Sea. I'm deeply concerned that we're going to look back on these months and say, we didn't know it then, but that is when World War Three started.
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